Custom-silicon worked case: program surplus, volume break-even, downside and one-year-slip results
About $100M base surplus; break-even at 33,334 devices (exact threshold 33,333⅓); −$50M at 30,000; −$100M with a one-year slip.derived
| Value kind | derived — Derived values are guide calculations; their result is only as fixed as the stated inputs, scope, and method. |
|---|---|
| Scope | Guide teaching scenario; the derivation is in the chapter text. Undiscounted program difference, not a supplier quote or an investment valuation. |
| As of | 2026-09 |
| Source | Synopsys, AI chip silicon-success and verification guidance — method reference; guide-authored hypothetical scenario September 8, 2026. No supplier quote or test measurement. |
| Derivation | F = $300M + $60M + $40M + 3 × $20M + $40M = $500M; s = $50,000 − $35,000 = $15,000 per device over 3 years ($5,000 per device-year). 40,000 × $15,000 − $500M = $100M. Break-even F/s = 33,333⅓, first whole device 33,334. 30,000 × $15,000 − $500M = −$50M. One-year slip: 40,000 × 2 × $5,000 = $400M of saving against unchanged F = $500M (sustaining paid through the slipped year, reserve spent) = −$100M, before any bridging merchant capacity. |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-08 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-10-19 · 2 revisions tracked |
| Claim id | guide2-t29-7-5-result |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.