Retained-fleet finance scenario: debt coverage and separate equity decision
About 1.5× minimum DSCR; −$19m equity NPV; receipts crossover about $64m/yearderived
| Value kind | derived — Derived values are guide calculations; their result is only as fixed as the stated inputs, scope, and method. |
|---|---|
| Scope | All money in $ millions; assumed teaching inputs, not quotes. Debt 100×0.50=50; construction interest 50×0.08×0.5=2.0; operating debt 52. Level payment 52×0.08/(1−1.08⁻³)≈20; six-month reserve ≈10. Sources and uses ≈112 each. Operating years 1–4: receipts 25/50/50/50; EBITDA 18/35/35/35; tax 0/2.2/2.4/2.7; sustaining 1.3/2.5/2.5/2.5; interest 4.2/4.2/2.9/1.5; principal 0/16/17/19; CFADS 16/30/30/30; DSCR 3.9/1.5/1.5/1.5. Project cash [0,−100,16,30,30,30] (tax without the interest deduction); equity cash [−10,−50,12,10,9.9,20] including the final reserve release. At 10%: project NPV ≈−17, equity NPV ≈−19; project IRR ≈1.7%, equity IRR ≈−4.9%. The case clears the assumed 1.30× covenant but fails the sponsor. At 65 full-use receipts: minimum DSCR ≈1.9×, project NPV ≈+2.4, equity NPV ≈+0.83. Equity NPV crosses zero at about 64 a year. |
| As of | 2026-09 |
| Source | Guide scenario (assumed inputs, September 8, 2026); NPV convention as Microsoft documents for Excel's NPV function. |
| Derivation | projectFinance: capex100,constructionYears1,leverage50,rate8,term4,revenue50,rampYears2,opex30,taxRate20,deprLife5,sustaining5,revGrowth0,hold4,exitMult0,discount10,dsraMonths6,graceYears1. financeDecision hold4 earningYears4 covenantDSCR1.3. Unrounded min1.476821759503517; equityNPV-18.923793112087637 $m. Revenue65 flips equityNPV to0.8277917895894653, minDSCR1.8559523739736379. Crossover revenue64.37134782319228 $m. |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-08 · standard cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-10-19 · 2 revisions tracked |
| Claim id | guide2-t26-finance-bridge |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.