Epoch AI: decline in the cost of reaching a fixed level of AI benchmark performance since 2023 (task cost, five-benchmark average)
~13x/yr (~47%/quarter)estimate
| Value kind | estimate — Interpret this value according to its displayed kind, scope, source, and as-of date. |
|---|---|
| Scope | Costs the tokens each model consumed per question, so reasoning tokens count; this is task cost, not Epoch AI's separate per-token price-trend series. The cost of reaching a performance level falls ~75x/yr (66%/quarter) just after that level first becomes state of the art, slowing to ~4.7x/yr (32%/quarter) two years later. Math benchmarks fall faster (50–52%/quarter) than games (39–43%). |
| As of | 2026-09 |
| Source | Epoch AI, The plunging price of thought, 2026-09-22 (updated 2026-09-23) · Headline finding: cost of a given level of AI performance has fallen about 47% per quarter since 2023, or 13x per year |
| Review | checking…review by 2027-03-22 · fast cadence |
| Recorded changes | last 2026-10-12 |
| Claim id | epoch-fixed-performance-task-cost-decline-2026 |
Where the guide uses it
← Full numbers register — every date-stamped figure in the guide, with revision history.