AI data centers in Texas & ERCOT
ERCOT's energy-only market and co-location with West Texas wind, solar, and gas can create project-specific power paths — priced in exposure to scarcity pricing, curtailment economics, and grid-islanding risk that the design basis must own.
Where the deltas are derived
- Chapter 3.2 — Grid Access, Large-Load Service & Speed-to-Power
- Chapter 3.4 — Energy Supply Strategy: Grid PPA, BYOP & Co-Location
- Chapter 3.9 — Permitting, Regulatory, Environmental & the Critical Path
- Chapter 4.2 — Utility Interconnect, On-Site Substation & MV Distribution
- Chapter 15.8 — Grid Impact, Energy-Systems Integration & Grid Services
- Appendix G — Regional & International Design Deltas: Consolidated Quick-Reference Crosswalk
Texas & ERCOT in the register
| Figure | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas average commercial retail electricity price — among the lowest in the US (statewide all-in average; competitive-supply quotes in deregulated ERCOT territories run lower) · Ch 3.3 | ~8.4¢/kWh | Apr 2026 | EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A |
| on-site gas LCOE must be modeled for the named plant from heat rate, gas price, capacity factor, capex and financing, O&M, emissions and permits, interconnection and standby costs · Ch 3.4 | Project-specific LCOE | 2026-08-24 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| large-load interconnection requests ERCOT is tracking (~90% data centers; arc: 63 → 233 → 438 → 474 GW; more than 5x ERCOT's record peak demand). Batch Zero paused 2026-08-03 by gubernatorial directive pending a PUCT/ERCOT project-by-project audit · Ch 3.1 | ~474 GW | 2026-08 | Abbott directive letter (2026-08-03, ~474 GW / ~90% DC); prior print 438+ GW (ERCOT, 2026-06-18). BNEF estimates the pause could delay ~50 GW. Operating sites unaffected. |
| Texas sales-tax revenue forgone to the data-center exemption (~$1B+/yr) · Ch 3.10 | ~$3.3B / biennium | 2026-07 | Texas Comptroller via Senate Finance hearing (2026-07-27); Texas Tribune; Holland & Knight |
| ERCOT 'large load' threshold forcing full interconnection + protection study (25 MW = modeling) · Ch 4.2 | 75 MW | 2026 | ERCOT Large Load Integration; SB6 |
| projected ERCOT data-center load in 2028; the same forecast reaches approximately 40.1 GW in 2030 · Ch 3.13 | ~28.2 GW | 2025-12-15 | Electric Reliability Council of Texas |
| curtailment-enabled headroom at 0.5% in PJM / MISO / ERCOT (SPP also ~10 GW; Southern ~8 GW) · Ch 15.8 | 18 / 15 / 10 GW | 2025 | Duke Nicholas Institute (via Utility Dive) |
| planned Stargate capacity across the Abilene flagship + five new US sites — multi-campus by necessity, not choice · Ch 8.8 | ~7 GW | 2025 | OpenAI / Data Center Frontier |
| Texas average data-center water intensity; ~49 bn gal statewide by end-2025 · Ch 3.7 | ~793 gal/MWh | 2025 | Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC), 'Thirsty Data and the Lone Star State' |
| Texas Chapter 312 property-tax abatement of eligible incremental property value, locally negotiated for up to 10 years · Ch 3.10 | up to 100% | 2025 | Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts |
Regulatory watchlist
| Rule | Threshold | Status / next action | Source | Verified | Review by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (Texas) — ERCOT Planning Guide §9 / PGRR145 — Batch Zero large-load integration | New load ≥75 MW; existing-load increase ≥75 MW; specified point-of-interconnection changes | Batch Zero implemented; PUCT SB 6 rulemaking remains a separate live process Next: Track Batch Zero studies and PUCT Project 58481 | Electric Reliability Council of Texas | 2026-08-24 | 2026-09-30 |
What this means for your schedule
For each ERCOT project, obtain the applicable large-load study path, host-utility agreement, upgrade scope, curtailment obligations, power rights, and dated milestones; neither a market label nor co-location guarantees an earlier service date. The design basis must also own scarcity-hour economics, an SB6-class curtailment response (ride-through, on-site generation, or workload shedding), and West Texas water reality. Budget the hedge strategy with the same seriousness as the substation.
Turn this into dates: the lead-time planner reverse-schedules every long-lead PO from your target — the queue figures above set which packages are already late.